The Best Guess Hypothesis in Multistage Inference i
نویسنده
چکیده
Intuitive multistage inferences are typically excessive when compared with the optimal model, a modified form of Bayes' theorem. One explanation for this excessiveness is that the S primarily attends to the implications of the probable event described by the first-stage inference, neglecting the implications of less likely events. If a S follows this strategy, called a "best guess" strategy, then a testable implication is that his probability revision at the upper level should be insensitive: to variations in the distribution of probabilities across all but the most likely event described by the first-stage inference. The results of the present experiment support this hypothesis.
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